We asked members of Exponential View to share their expectations and predictions for the year ahead. We received over 100 forecasts — thank you to all who took part! — we’ve curated a selection of your forecasts, keep reading.
[We’ll see] the emergence of 'biological magic' that results from a combination of breakthroughs. - Roger Dennis
Popular commentators will begin to refer to Covid vaccines as "gene therapy". The same term will have radically different meanings to different groups. - Sam Lawrence
A "biotech" company will release a pill or injection to markedly change the appearance of a human for a short period of time (eg purple skin for a week). - Dave Goldblatt
A new kind (one in current development) of battery will reach the threshold of commercialization. - Randy L.
A cancer, or category of cancers, will be cured via a combination of vaccine and novel treatment. Additionally, at least one highly reliable screening method will be established for a cancer, or category of cancers, for which one does not currently exist. - LeMel Williams
First deepfake-related crimes or unrest will happen. - Gianni Giacomelli
The first wave of partially autonomous businesses (mostly run by AI) will be launched. - Rafael Kaufmann
The markets remain relatively flat, with the S&P hovering around 4200 and BTC/ETH hovering around 20k and 1500, respectively. - Dave Goldblatt
The US Fed Fund rate goes up to 5.5%. - Andy Meyer
Activist shareholders at one of the major tech giants will cause it to split or spin off assets. - Aneesh Varma
A ChatGPT coach / course generates > $10m ARR. - Henry Coutinho-Mason
The seaweed market and ocean farming market in general will grow in Europe. Mollusks and seaweeds will grow their share in our diets and big fish will decrease. - Alice Casiraghi
A new generation of long-horizon regenerative VC funds will be launched. Their main investment thesis will be to focus on buying and regenerating natural capital assets, primarily farms and forests. And, a developed country will launch a program for treating ecosystems as utilities. - Rafael Kaufmann
Fights over fresh water access rights will intensify. - Laura N.
The US gets directly involved in Ukraine and has "advisors" on the ground. The Ukraine war is over by October, when peace talks start in earnest. - Andy Meyer